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Confidential · LEADBeyond Market Intelligence

Market Intelligence Engine · v11.4 · May 2026

UK + Ireland Residential Ventilation

Market Intelligence Engine

Sizing the UK + Ireland residential ventilation opportunity from housing stock and new-build flow through balanced ventilation adoption to Zehnder’s HRV/ERV product market — MVHR and SRHR. UK uses the full v11 staged stock-to-flow conversion engine; Ireland is modelled as a lighter aggregate proxy due to limited comparable source-system evidence. Base scenario, client-ready final.

31.4M

UK dwellings 2030 (TOM)

304k

SAM first-install 2030

£381M

SAM value 2030

15 + 2

15 core sheets + 2 governance tabs · 4 drivers

How the Engine Works

Data Flow: Sources → Assumptions → Scenarios → TOM → Conversion Engine → Bridge → SAM → SOM → Summary → Output

The v11.4 engine works as a cascading pipeline of 10 client-facing sheets, plus supporting modules for Ireland, Zehnder actuals, and governance. Click any step below to see what it does.

1. Source Data Library

2. Assumptions

3. Driver Scenarios

4. UK TOM

5. UK Conversion Engine

6. UK Conversion Bridge

7. UK SAM

8. UK SOM

9. Summary

10. Output_Flat

Supporting modules

IE_TOM
aggregate IE proxy

IE_SAM
aggregate IE proxy

IE_SOM
aggregate IE proxy

Zehnder_Actuals
sales, revenue, share

V11_Reconciliation
QA / stability

V10_Calibration_Helper
legacy reference

1. Source Data Library

68 source rows across columns A:N. Each row includes ID, category, metric, value, unit, geography, source name, publisher, URL, publication date, vintage, confidence, notes, and explicit usage in the model.

PurposeAudit trail for every assumption

Key InputsONS, MHCLG, DESNZ, GB ventilation survey, SEAI/CSO

Key OutputsValidated reference values cited by Assumptions and Driver_Scenarios

Editable?Yes — add new sources, update confidence

2. Assumptions

Foundation parameters. AC = sourced actuals; FC = forecast / scenario-driven. UK Section C uses 2022 opening stock anchor, 2023–2024 historical bridge, 2025 target, and 2026–2030 roll-forward through UK_TOM. Ireland has a separate aggregate stock proxy.

PurposeSet structural splits and opening anchors

Key InputsSource Data Library references

Key OutputsStock splits, NB SFH/MFH share, opening vent shares

Editable?Yes — blue cells only

3. Driver Scenarios

Four independent driver buckets — Construction, Retrofit/Conversion, Technology Mix, Pricing — each with Low/Base/High paths that can be combined freely. Ireland proxy parameters are embedded in the relevant buckets.

PurposeSingle control panel for scenario analysis

Key InputsAssumptions sheet anchors

Key OutputsScenario-specific rates fed to the Conversion Engine and SAM/SOM

Editable?Yes — select Low/Base/High per driver

4. UK TOM

Maps the entire UK housing stock by ventilation type across 7 categories. 30.4M dwellings 2022 → 31.4M by 2030. Replacement flows do not change installed stock.

PurposeTotal opportunity sizing

Key InputsHousing stock, opening vent shares, conversion engine flows

Key OutputsStock-by-vent-type for each year 2022–2030

Editable?No — formula-driven

5. UK Conversion Engine

v11 staged stock-to-flow calculator. 4 source-system conversion families, split by SFH/MFH, plus 2 replacement pathways. Each first-install pathway applies: source stock × trigger rate × technical feasibility × balanced adoption × HRV/ERV share × MVHR/SRHR mix.

PurposeCalculate annual conversion flows from existing stock

Key InputsTOM stock, driver scenario rates, feasibility

Key OutputsPathway-level balanced + MVHR + SRHR unit flows

Editable?No — formula-driven

6. UK Conversion Bridge

Aggregates the Engine’s pathway-level outputs into clean first-install and replacement totals that feed UK_SAM and UK_SOM. Includes an integrity check that bridge totals equal engine totals.

PurposeClean handoff from Engine to SAM/SOM

Key InputsUK_Conversion_Engine pathway outputs

Key OutputsFirst-install SFH/MFH, Replacement MVHR/SRHR, MVHR/SRHR totals

Editable?No — formula-driven

7. UK SAM

Serviceable Available Market: New Build balanced installs + first-time Conversion from existing stock. v11.4 also publishes an “including replacement” view for reconciliation with SOM and actuals.

PurposeSize the addressable balanced vent market

Key InputsNB completions, Bridge first-install flows, ASPs

Key OutputsSAM units and value, first-install and incl. replacement

Editable?No — formula-driven

8. UK SOM

Serviceable Obtainable Market: the HRV/ERV subset of SAM, split MVHR (central) vs SRHR (decentral), with explicit first-install and replacement flows. The product market Zehnder competes in.

PurposeSize Zehnder’s addressable HRV/ERV market

Key InputsSAM units, HRV/ERV penetration, MVHR/SRHR mix, ASPs

Key OutputsSOM units and value by NB/Conversion, SFH/MFH, MVHR/SRHR, plus aftermarket

Editable?No — formula-driven

9. Summary

Consolidates the TOM → SAM → SOM funnel for both UK and Ireland, plus funnel-check ratios and Zehnder actuals share read-outs on both bases.

PurposeExecutive funnel view

Key InputsUK_SAM, UK_SOM, IE_SAM, IE_SOM, Zehnder_Actuals

Key OutputsFunnel totals, growth, share metrics

Editable?No — formula-driven

10. Output_Flat

Long-format export designed for BI ingestion. One row per Geography / Layer / Metric, columns 2022–2030.

PurposeMachine-readable export for Power BI / Tableau

Key InputsSummary, SAM, SOM

Key OutputsFlat table for downstream analytics

Editable?No — auto-generated

IE_TOM — Ireland aggregate proxy

Ireland is modelled as a lighter aggregate proxy because comparable ventilation stock pathway evidence is not available. IE_TOM mirrors the UK_TOM structure for cross-market comparison but does not feed a UK-style source-system conversion engine.

IE_SAM — Ireland balanced vent flow

Driven by new-build completions × balanced penetration plus aggregate deep-retrofit volume × balanced rate. No detailed source-system conversion engine. Strong regulatory tailwind from Part F 2019 and BER B2 requirements.

IE_SOM — Ireland HRV/ERV

Applies HRV/ERV share and MVHR/SRHR mix to IE_SAM. Modeled IE value uses UK proxy ASPs; unit outputs are more robust than value outputs.

Zehnder_Actuals

Actual UK + Ireland sales, revenue, ASP and dual-basis market share calculations. Basis A: As Reported / All Sales vs modeled SOM incl. replacement. Basis B: Estimated First-Install-Adjusted (proxy that strips an estimated replacement proportion) vs modeled first-install SOM.

V11_Reconciliation — governance

Output stability / QA check. Compares v11.4 outputs (SAM units/value, SOM units/value, replacement flows) against the prior model baseline. All material metrics confirmed within numerical noise (max |Δ%| ~3.9e-16). Status: OK across the board.

V10_Calibration_Helper — legacy reference

Documentation only. Holds the historical pathway-rate calibration logic used in earlier iterations. Live v11 formulas do not reference this sheet; it is retained for traceability, not as a client-facing model driver.

Excel cell colour convention: Blue cells are editable inputs. Black cells contain formulas — do not overwrite. The four scenario drivers (Construction, Retrofit/Conversion, Technology Mix, Pricing) each have independent Low / Base / High paths.

Input Sheet

1. Source Data Library

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68 source rows across columns A:N. Each row includes ID, category, metric, value, unit, geography, source name, publisher, URL, publication date, vintage, confidence, notes, and explicit usage in the model.

ID	Category	Metric	Value	Source	Conf.
UK_HS_001	Housing Stock	UK total housing stock (ONS 31.03.2023)	30,413 '000	ONS Dwelling Stock by Tenure	H
UK_HS_007	Housing Stock	UK total housing stock 2025	30,780 '000	ONS Dwelling Stock by Tenure	M
UK_NB_001	New Build	UK new dwelling completions FY 2024-25	182.2 '000	Welsh Gov cross-UK table	M
UK_VS_001	Ventilation	MVHR prevalence in GB housing stock	3.0%	Univ. of Strathclyde survey (n=1,861)	M
UK_VS_002	Ventilation	PIV prevalence in GB housing stock	2.0%	Univ. of Strathclyde survey	M
UK_VS_013	Ventilation	Self-reported mould/damp issues	22%	Univ. of Strathclyde survey	M
UK_HP_001	Heat Pumps	UK retrofit heat pump installs 2022	26,292	DESNZ Heat Pump Statistics	H
UK_HP_004	Heat Pumps	UK retrofit heat pump installs 2025	51,886	DESNZ Heat Pump Statistics	H

Representative selection — full 68-row library is in the workbook’s Source_Data_Library tab.

Input Sheet — Editable

2. Assumptions

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AC = sourced actuals; FC = forecast / scenario-driven. Housing stock and opening ventilation stock are anchored in sourced assumptions. Scenario-dependent future parameters live in Driver_Scenarios. UK Section C uses a 2022 opening stock anchor, 2023–2024 historical bridge, 2025 target, and 2026–2030 roll-forward through UK_TOM. Ireland uses a separate aggregate stock proxy due to limited source-system survey evidence.

Parameter	Unit	2022	2025	2026	2028	2030
UK total housing stock	'000 dw.	30,413	30,780	30,903	31,151	31,401
UK new-build completions (Base)	'000	232.8	182.2	186.8	196.3	206.2
Deep retrofit trigger — SFH	% /yr	0.70%	1.00%	1.25%	1.75%	2.25%
Deep retrofit trigger — MFH	% /yr	0.40%	0.70%	0.90%	1.30%	1.70%
NB SFH: balanced vent penetration	%	28%	42%	46%	54%	62%
NB MFH: balanced vent penetration	%	45%	60%	64%	72%	80%

UK opening stock split (2022 anchor → 2025 target → rolled forward to 2030):

Ventilation type	2022 anchor	2025 target
Natural only (window/trickle, no mechanical)	29.0%	27.5%
Local exhaust / dMEV (intermittent)	40.0%	38.5%
Central exhaust / MEV (continuous + passive stacks)	21.0%	21.8%
Supply-only / PIV	2.0%	2.3%
Balanced MVHR (central)	2.7%	3.8%
Balanced SRHR (decentral)	0.3%	0.6%
Hybrid / Other / Unknown	5.0%	5.5%

Control Panel

3. Driver Scenarios — 4 independent drivers

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Four independent driver buckets, each with Low / Base / High paths. They can be combined in any mix (e.g. weak construction + strong retrofit + base adoption + base pricing). Ireland proxy parameters are embedded in the relevant buckets.

1. Construction volume

UK NB completions by 2030: Low 155k / Base 206k / High 280k

IE NB completions by 2030: Low ~32k / Base 42k / High ~52k

2022–2025 anchored to ONS/MHCLG sources; 2026–2030 scenario-driven.

2. Retrofit, upgrade & replacement activity

Deep retrofit SFH: 0.70% → 2.25% (Base, 2022→2030)

Deep retrofit MFH: 0.40% → 1.70%

Moderate reno / system upgrade: 2.5% → 3.3%

PIV upgrade / replacement: 2.5% → 3.3%

MVHR replacement: 2.5% /yr

SRHR replacement: 2.5% /yr

IE deep retrofit volume: 8k → 24k; balanced rate 15% → 32%

3. Adoption & product mix

NB SFH balanced pen.: 28% → 62%

NB MFH balanced pen.: 45% → 80%

IE NB balanced pen.: 35% → 80%

HRV/ERV share — NB SFH: 52% → 74%

HRV/ERV share — Reno SFH: 40% → 63%

UK MVHR share of HRV (SFH): 82% → 75%

IE MVHR share of HRV: 75% → 85%

4. Pricing / ASP

SAM NB SFH ASP: £960 → £1,172

SAM NB MFH ASP: £760 → £928

SOM MVHR NB ASP: £1,250 → £1,499

SOM MVHR Reno / Replacement ASP: £1,400 → £1,685

SOM SRHR NB ASP: £380 → £464

SOM SRHR Reno / Replacement ASP: £500 → £617

New-build flow: NB completions × balanced vent penetration × HRV/ERV share × MVHR/SRHR mix × ASP
Retrofit / conversion flow: Existing source stock × trigger rate × technical feasibility × balanced adoption × HRV/ERV share × MVHR/SRHR mix × ASP
Replacement flow: Installed MVHR/SRHR base × effective replacement rate × replacement ASP

Funnel Layer 1

4. UK TOM — Total Opportunity Market

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Maps all UK dwellings by ventilation type. 2022 opening stock anchor; 2023–2025 historical bridge; 2026–2030 roll-forward using v11 staged conversion logic. Replacement flows do not change installed stock.

Ventilation type	Segment	2022	2024	2026	2028	2030
1. Natural ventilation (window/trickle only)	Basic	8,820	8,591	8,431	8,340	8,217
2. Local exhaust / dMEV (intermittent fans)	Basic	12,165	11,966	11,891	11,944	11,955
3. Central exhaust / MEV (continuous extract)	Basic	6,387	6,607	6,712	6,695	6,646
4. Supply-only / PIV	Transitional	608	675	709	708	703
5. Balanced MVHR — central (Zehnder core)	Advanced ★	821	1,053	1,272	1,529	1,864
6. Balanced SRHR — decentral (Zehnder core)	Advanced ★	91	153	218	302	417
7. Hybrid / Other / Unknown	Mixed	1,521	1,636	1,671	1,633	1,599
TOTAL UK HOUSING STOCK ('000)	—	30,413	30,683	30,903	31,151	31,401

Heat pump correlation (DESNZ, contextual only): 26,292 (2022) → 48,677 (2024) → 51,886 (2025). Ventilation upgrades are often bundled with heat-pump retrofits but are not a direct multiplier in SAM/SOM.

Calculation Engine

5. UK Conversion Engine

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v11 staged stock-to-flow calculator: 4 source-system conversion families, split by SFH/MFH, plus 2 replacement pathways. Each first-install conversion family is calculated separately for SFH and MFH. Each pathway applies source stock → trigger rate → technical feasibility (75% → 88% over time for deep retrofit; 55% → 68% for moderate / PIV) → balanced adoption → HRV/ERV share → MVHR/SRHR mix.

1. Natural → balanced

Deep retrofit pathway. SFH and MFH calculated separately.

2. dMEV / local exhaust → balanced

Moderate renovation pathway. SFH and MFH separately.

3. MEV / central exhaust → balanced

Moderate renovation pathway. SFH and MFH separately.

4. PIV / supply-only → balanced

PIV upgrade pathway. SFH and MFH separately.

5. MVHR replacement

2.5% /yr effective replacement on installed MVHR base.

6. SRHR replacement

2.5% /yr effective replacement on installed SRHR base.

Total retrofit addressable flow incl. replacement: 62.6k in 2022 → 217.8k in 2030. Of this, first-time conversion grows from 39.8k to 166.8k, while replacement grows from 22.8k to 51.0k.

Aggregator

6. UK Conversion Bridge

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Aggregates the engine’s pathway-level flows into clean first-install vs replacement totals that feed UK_SAM and UK_SOM. Includes an integrity check (bridge total = engine total).

Category	2022	2025	2030
First-time SFH balanced	31.3k	51.9k	131.2k
First-time MFH balanced	8.5k	14.1k	35.5k
First-time total	39.8k	66.0k	166.8k
MVHR replacement	20.5k	29.2k	42.1k
SRHR replacement	2.3k	4.6k	8.9k
Replacement total	22.8k	33.9k	51.0k
Total retrofit addressable flow	62.6k	99.8k	217.8k

Funnel Layer 2

7. UK SAM — Serviceable Available Market

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SAM’s primary market definition is first-install balanced ventilation, but v11.4 also shows an including-replacement view for reconciliation with SOM and actuals.

Segment	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
NB SFH	48.9	56.3	63.5	57.4	64.4	71.8	79.5	87.5	95.9
NB MFH	26.2	29.3	31.2	27.3	29.9	32.6	35.3	38.2	41.2
NB Total	75.1	85.6	94.7	84.7	94.3	104.4	114.8	125.7	137.1
First-time conversion SFH	31.3	35.4	45.5	51.9	65.4	80.1	96.0	113.0	131.2
First-time conversion MFH	8.5	9.6	12.3	14.1	17.7	21.7	26.0	30.6	35.5
First-Install Conversion Total	39.8	44.9	57.9	66.0	83.1	101.8	122.0	143.6	166.8
SAM First-Install Total (units '000)	114.9	130.5	152.6	150.7	177.5	206.2	236.8	269.4	303.9
SAM First-Install Value (£M)	£116.8	£136.5	£162.9	£165.7	£200.6	£239.5	£282.3	£329.5	£381.1
Replacement / aftermarket (MVHR+SRHR)	22.8	26.4	30.2	33.9	33.9	37.2	41.2	45.8	51.0
SAM Total incl. Replacement (units '000)	137.7	156.9	182.8	184.6	211.3	243.4	278.0	315.2	354.9
SAM Total incl. Replacement (£M)	£146.6	£171.4	£203.4	£211.7	£247.9	£292.4	£341.9	£396.9	£457.6

By ~2028, first-install conversion from stock overtakes new build as the primary SAM driver. Conversion grows 4.2× (40k → 167k) — driven by retrofit/EPC pressure, replacement cycles, and rising technical feasibility.

Funnel Layer 3

8. UK SOM — Serviceable Obtainable Market (MVHR + SRHR)

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The HRV/ERV subset of SAM, split MVHR (central) vs SRHR (decentral). Separately tracks first-install and replacement / aftermarket.

Section	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
A. New Build SFH
NB SFH: HRV/ERV total	25.4	31.5	34.9	33.9	40.0	46.7	54.1	62.1	71.0
MVHR (central)	20.9	25.8	28.3	27.1	31.6	36.4	41.6	47.2	53.2
SRHR (decentral)	4.6	5.7	6.6	6.8	8.4	10.3	12.4	14.9	17.7
B. New Build MFH
NB MFH: HRV/ERV total	12.6	15.2	15.9	15.0	17.3	19.9	22.6	25.6	28.9
MVHR	8.8	10.7	11.0	10.2	11.6	13.1	14.7	16.4	18.2
SRHR	3.8	4.6	4.9	4.8	5.7	6.8	7.9	9.2	10.7
C. Conversion SFH
Reno SFH: HRV/ERV total	12.5	15.6	20.0	24.9	33.4	43.3	54.7	67.8	82.7
MVHR	10.7	13.1	16.6	20.4	27.0	34.6	43.2	52.9	63.7
SRHR	1.9	2.5	3.4	4.5	6.3	8.7	11.5	14.9	19.0
D. Conversion MFH
Reno MFH: HRV/ERV total	3.0	3.6	4.7	5.9	8.0	10.4	13.3	16.5	20.2
MVHR	1.9	2.4	3.0	3.7	4.9	6.4	8.0	9.7	11.7
SRHR	1.0	1.3	1.7	2.2	3.0	4.1	5.3	6.8	8.5
E. First-Install Totals
SOM First-Install (units '000)	53.5	65.9	75.6	79.7	98.6	120.2	144.6	172.1	202.8
MVHR first-install	42.2	51.9	58.9	61.5	75.2	90.5	107.5	126.3	146.8
SRHR first-install	11.3	14.0	16.7	18.3	23.5	29.7	37.1	45.8	55.9
SOM First-Install Value (£M)	£59.3	£74.5	£87.0	£93.8	£118.6	£147.7	£181.3	£220.0	£264.3
F. Replacement / Aftermarket
Replacement MVHR	20.5	23.3	26.3	29.2	29.2	31.8	34.8	38.2	42.1
Replacement SRHR	2.3	3.0	3.8	4.6	4.6	5.4	6.4	7.5	8.9
Replacement total (units / £M)	22.8 / £29.9	26.4 / £34.9	30.2 / £40.5	33.9 / £46.1	33.9 / £47.2	37.2 / £52.9	41.2 / £59.6	45.8 / £67.4	51.0 / £76.5
G. Grand Total incl. Aftermarket
SOM Total incl. Replacement (units '000)	76.3	92.3	105.7	113.6	132.5	157.5	185.8	217.9	253.8
MVHR total	62.8	75.3	85.2	90.7	104.4	122.3	142.3	164.5	189.0
SRHR total	13.5	17.0	20.5	22.9	28.1	35.2	43.6	53.4	64.8
SOM Grand Total Value (£M)	£89.2	£109.5	£127.5	£139.9	£165.9	£200.6	£240.9	£287.4	£340.8

MVHR’s share gradually decreases as SRHR adoption grows in retrofit segments where decentralised solutions have lower installation barriers. Both product categories grow in absolute terms. Aftermarket adds £76.5M of value by 2030.

Add-on — aggregate proxy

Ireland module (IE_TOM, IE_SAM, IE_SOM)

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Ireland is modelled as a lighter aggregate proxy, not with the full UK source-system conversion engine, because comparable ventilation stock pathway evidence is not available. Unit outputs are more robust than value outputs; Ireland value uses UK ASP proxy logic.

Metric	2022	2025	2026	2028	2030
IE housing stock ('000)	2,112	2,181	2,209	2,267	2,326
IE NB completions ('000)	33.0	37.0	38.0	40.0	42.0
IE NB balanced penetration	35%	55%	60%	70%	80%
IE NB balanced installs ('000)	11.6	20.4	22.8	28.0	33.6
IE deep retrofit balanced installs ('000)	1.2	3.1	3.8	5.6	7.7
IE SAM total ('000)	12.8	23.4	26.6	33.6	41.3
IE SOM total HRV/ERV ('000)	6.4	15.2	17.8	23.9	31.0
IE MVHR units ('000)	4.8	12.2	14.5	19.8	26.3
IE SRHR units ('000)	1.6	3.0	3.4	4.1	4.6

Modeled IE value uses UK proxy ASPs. Ireland revenue and share metrics are directional, not decision-grade.

Output & Export

9. Summary & 10. Output_Flat

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Summary consolidates the TOM → SAM → SOM funnel for both UK and Ireland, plus combined units, funnel-check ratios, and Zehnder-actuals share read-outs. Output_Flat is the BI-ready long-format export — one row per Geography / Layer / Metric, columns 2022–2030. Together they expose every headline metric used in this dashboard.

How to read this dashboard: Start with the funnel and value trajectory, then read the growth mechanics, value pool, driver assumptions, Ireland add-on, and finally Zehnder actuals/share. Base Scenario

Section 1 — Executive visual summary

Headline funnel & value trajectory

TOM → SAM → SOM for the UK base scenario in 2030, with the SOM split between first-install and aftermarket. The value-trajectory chart shows SAM, SOM first-install and SOM total (incl. replacement) 2022–2030.

31.4M

UK housing stock 2030 (TOM)

+0.4% /yr

304k

UK SAM first-install 2030

2.6× from 2022

203k

UK SOM first-install 2030

3.8× from 2022

254k

UK SOM total incl. replacement 2030

+51k aftermarket

£341M

UK SOM total value 2030

£264M first-install + £76.5M aftermarket

Market Funnel Base

UK funnel 2030 — total, MVHR-only, or SRHR-only.

Market Value Trajectory Base

SAM first-install, SOM first-install and SOM total incl. replacement (£M).

Headline driver assumptions (UK, 2022 → 2030)

NB SFH balanced pen.28% → 62%

NB MFH balanced pen.45% → 80%

HRV/ERV share — NB SFH52% → 74%

HRV/ERV share — Reno SFH40% → 63%

MVHR share of HRV (NB SFH)82% → 75%

MVHR share of HRV (NB MFH)70% → 63%

Deep retrofit trigger — SFH0.70% → 2.25%

Deep retrofit trigger — MFH0.40% → 1.70%

SOM MVHR NB ASP£1,250 → £1,499

SOM MVHR Reno/Repl ASP£1,400 → £1,685

SOM SRHR NB ASP£380 → £464

SOM SRHR Reno/Repl ASP£500 → £617

Tech feasibility — deep75% → 88%

Tech feasibility — moderate55% → 68%

Section 2 — Market growth mechanics

How the UK market grows Base Scenario

New build vs conversion, first-install vs replacement, and product mix (MVHR vs SRHR). All four charts source UK_SAM and UK_SOM in v11.4.

1. SAM Growth — New Build vs Conversion

Stacked balanced-vent units '000 (UK_SAM). Conversion overtakes NB ~2028.

2. Retrofit / Conversion Flow — First-Time vs Replacement

Stacked units '000 (UK_Conversion_Bridge). First-time conversion grows 4.2×.

3. SOM — First-Install vs Aftermarket

Stacked units '000 (UK_SOM). Aftermarket adds steady tail revenue.

4. SOM Product Mix — MVHR vs SRHR

Stacked total incl. replacement (UK_SOM). SRHR grows faster off a smaller base.

5a. New-build adoption (% of NB completions)

UK SFH, UK MFH, IE NB balanced penetration (Driver_Scenarios).

5b. Retrofit constraint — technical feasibility

Deep retrofit, moderate renovation, PIV / low-effort feasibility (Driver_Scenarios).

Section 3 — Value pool

Where the value sits Base Scenario

UK SOM value, decomposed by MVHR/SRHR, SFH/MFH and NB/Conversion. Toggle the controls to see how the pool is split. Replacement entries are present in “Total” and “Aftermarket” views.

Year

Column

Row

Market Type

Validation: Value-pool totals reconcile to UK_SOM. 2030 Total = £340.8M / 253.8k units. 2025 Total = £139.9M / 113.6k units. Replacement entries split SFH/MFH using the workbook’s 78.7%/21.3% stock-share allocation; all reconcile to SOM grand total within rounding.

Section 4 — Driver scenario logic

Four drivers, three formulas

The market sizes change only when one of these four driver buckets changes. All charts above show the Base path; Low and High paths are available in the workbook.

1. Construction volume

UK NB by 2030: Low 155k / Base 206k / High 280k

IE NB by 2030: Low ~32k / Base 42k / High ~52k

2022–2025 anchored; 2026–2030 scenario-driven.

2. Retrofit, upgrade & replacement

Deep retrofit SFH 0.7% → 2.25%

Deep retrofit MFH 0.4% → 1.70%

Moderate reno trigger 2.5% → 3.3%

PIV upgrade trigger 2.5% → 3.3%

MVHR / SRHR replacement 2.5% /yr

IE deep retrofit 8k → 24k @ 15% → 32% balanced

3. Adoption & product mix

UK NB SFH balanced pen. 28% → 62%

UK NB MFH balanced pen. 45% → 80%

IE NB balanced pen. 35% → 80%

UK MVHR share of HRV trends down; SRHR up

IE MVHR share 75% → 85%

4. Pricing / ASP

SAM NB SFH £960 → £1,172

SAM NB MFH £760 → £928

SOM MVHR NB £1,250 → £1,499

SOM MVHR Reno/Repl £1,400 → £1,685

SOM SRHR NB £380 → £464

SOM SRHR Reno/Repl £500 → £617

New build: NB completions × balanced ventilation penetration × HRV/ERV share × MVHR/SRHR mix × ASP
Retrofit / conversion: Existing source stock × trigger rate × technical feasibility × balanced adoption × HRV/ERV share × MVHR/SRHR mix × ASP
Replacement: Installed MVHR/SRHR base × effective replacement rate × replacement ASP

Section 5 — Ireland add-on

Ireland market Aggregate proxy

Ireland is modelled as an aggregate proxy, not with the full UK source-system conversion engine, because comparable ventilation stock pathway evidence is not available. Unit outputs are more robust than value outputs; Ireland value uses UK ASP proxy logic.

Ireland Market Evolution

IE NB balanced, IE deep retrofit balanced, IE SOM total HRV/ERV (units '000).

Ireland SAM & SOM (units '000)

Metric	2022	2025	2026	2030
Housing stock ('000)	2,112	2,181	2,209	2,326
NB balanced penetration	35%	55%	60%	80%
NB balanced installs	11.6	20.4	22.8	33.6
Deep retrofit balanced	1.2	3.1	3.8	7.7
IE SAM total	12.8	23.4	26.6	41.3
IE SOM total HRV/ERV	6.4	15.2	17.8	31.0
IE MVHR	4.8	12.2	14.5	26.3
IE SRHR	1.6	3.0	3.4	4.6

Modeled IE value uses UK proxy ASPs. Ireland revenue and share metrics are directional only.

Section 6 — Zehnder actuals & market share

Zehnder vs the modeled market

Actual sales, revenue and ASP for 2022–2025 (Zehnder_Actuals). UK shares are shown on two bases: As Reported / All Sales vs modeled SOM incl. replacement, and First-Install-Adjusted (proxy) vs modeled first-install SOM. 2026–2030 actual rows are intentionally blank in the workbook.

9.89k

UK HRV/ERV actual units 2025

8.7% unit share, as reported

£9.18M

UK HRV/ERV actual revenue 2025

6.6% revenue share, as reported

1.45k

Ireland HRV/ERV actual units 2025

9.5% unit share vs IE_SOM

£1.03M

Ireland HRV/ERV actual revenue 2025

5.6% rev. share (UK ASP proxy)

Actual HRV/ERV Units — UK vs Ireland

Units '000, 2022–2025 (Zehnder_Actuals).

Unit Market Share — UK vs Ireland

UK as-reported vs first-install-adjusted; Ireland vs IE_SOM units.

Revenue Market Share — UK vs Ireland

UK as-reported vs first-install-adjusted; Ireland uses UK ASP proxy denominator.

Ireland value share is directional — the IE revenue denominator is built from a UK ASP proxy because Ireland has no comparable price evidence.

Detail

UK actuals by product type (2022–2025)

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HRV/ERV scope = MVHR + SRHR. MEV/dMEV are shown as context.

Product / metric	2022	2023	2024	2025
Actual units
MVHR units	4,391	5,095	6,167	9,831
SRHR units	0	0	5	55
MEV units	4,759	3,382	2,770	2,419
dMEV units	260,207	306,899	346,383	381,751
HRV/ERV units total ('000)	4.39	5.10	6.17	9.89
Actual revenue
MVHR revenue (£M)	£4.00	£4.56	£6.92	£9.14
SRHR revenue (£M)	£0.000	£0.000	£0.001	£0.034
MEV revenue (£M)	£0.59	£0.47	£0.42	£0.32
dMEV revenue (£M)	£11.56	£14.45	£19.39	£18.53
HRV/ERV revenue total (£M)	£4.00	£4.56	£6.93	£9.18
Actual ASP
MVHR ASP (£/unit)	£911	£895	£1,123	£930
SRHR ASP (£/unit)	—	—	£248	£621
MEV ASP (£/unit)	£123	£140	£151	£132
dMEV ASP (£/unit)	£44	£47	£56	£49
HRV/ERV realised ASP (£/unit)	£911	£895	£1,122	£928

Detail

UK HRV/ERV market share (dual basis)

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As Reported / All Sales compares actuals to modeled SOM incl. replacement. First-Install-Adjusted strips an estimated replacement proportion and compares against modeled first-install SOM.

Metric	2022	2023	2024	2025
Basis A — As Reported / All Sales (vs SOM incl. replacement)
Unit share — total HRV/ERV	5.8%	5.5%	5.8%	8.7%
Unit share — MVHR	7.0%	6.8%	7.2%	10.8%
Unit share — SRHR	0.0%	0.0%	0.02%	0.24%
Revenue share — total HRV/ERV	4.5%	4.2%	5.4%	6.6%
Revenue share — MVHR	4.8%	4.5%	5.9%	7.1%
Revenue share — SRHR	0.0%	0.0%	0.01%	0.31%
Basis B — Estimated First-Install-Adjusted (proxy; vs first-install SOM)
Unit share — total HRV/ERV	5.5%	5.3%	5.6%	8.4%
Revenue share — total HRV/ERV	4.4%	4.1%	5.4%	6.5%

UK first-install-adjusted figures are estimated, not observed. The proxy strips a modeled replacement proportion from reported actuals to enable an apples-to-apples comparison with first-install SOM.

Detail

Ireland actuals by product type (2022–2025)

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Ireland actuals include MVHR, SRHR, MEV and dMEV. Share rows apply only to HRV/ERV where a modeled denominator exists.

Product / metric	2022	2023	2024	2025
Actual units
MVHR units	852	180	1,744	1,449
SRHR units	0	0	3	0
MEV units	1,330	42	224	841
dMEV units	10	21	21	27
HRV/ERV units total ('000)	0.85	0.18	1.75	1.45
Actual revenue
MVHR revenue (£M)	£0.48	£0.10	£1.31	£1.03
SRHR revenue (£M)	£0.00	£0.00	£0.00	£0.00
MEV revenue (£M)	£0.18	£0.01	£0.03	£0.11
dMEV revenue (£M)	£0.001	£0.001	£0.002	£0.001
HRV/ERV revenue total (£M)	£0.48	£0.10	£1.31	£1.03
Actual ASP
MVHR ASP (£/unit)	£558	£579	£749	£713
MEV ASP (£/unit)	£134	£139	£156	£131
dMEV ASP (£/unit)	£54	£61	£75	£46
HRV/ERV ASP (£/unit)	£558	£579	£747	£713

Detail

Ireland HRV/ERV market share (vs IE_SOM)

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Ireland shares run against modeled IE_SOM. Value shares use the workbook’s UK ASP proxy for the IE revenue denominator.

Metric	2022	2023	2024	2025
Actual HRV/ERV units ('000)	0.85	0.18	1.75	1.45
Unit share — total HRV/ERV	13.4%	2.1%	14.2%	9.5%
MVHR unit share	17.8%	2.8%	18.1%	11.9%
SRHR unit share	0.0%	0.0%	0.11%	0.0%
Actual HRV/ERV revenue (£M)	£0.48	£0.10	£1.31	£1.03
Revenue share — total HRV/ERV (UK ASP proxy)	6.9%	1.1%	9.2%	5.6%
MVHR revenue share (UK ASP proxy)	7.7%	1.2%	10.0%	6.1%

Detail

Combined UK + Ireland read-across

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Derived view combining UK + Ireland HRV/ERV actuals. Combined denominator = UK SOM incl. replacement + IE_SOM. Ireland value remains UK-ASP-proxy based.

Metric	2022	2023	2024	2025
Combined actual HRV/ERV units ('000)	5.24	5.28	7.92	11.34
Combined unit market share	6.3%	5.2%	6.7%	8.8%
Combined actual HRV/ERV revenue (£M)	£4.48	£4.66	£8.23	£10.21
Combined revenue market share	4.7%	3.9%	5.8%	6.5%

Aggregate read-across only. Decision-grade share interpretation should use the separate UK and Ireland tables because their denominators differ.

Section 7 — Notes & caveats

Read the dashboard carefully

Scope: Market charts and tables reflect the v11.4 Base scenario. Low/Base/High paths across four independent drivers (Construction, Retrofit, Adoption & Product Mix, Pricing) are available in the workbook.
Actuals coverage: Zehnder actual sales, revenue and ASP are populated for 2022–2025 only; 2026–2030 are intentionally left blank.
UK share — dual basis: “First-install-adjusted” is an estimated proxy, not observed. It strips a modeled replacement proportion from reported actuals to align with the first-install SOM denominator.
Ireland: The IE module is an aggregate proxy, not a full source-system conversion engine. Ireland value share uses UK ASP proxy denominators; Ireland revenue and share metrics are directional.
BI export: Output_Flat is pre-structured for Power BI / Tableau ingestion.
Data last updated: v11.4 / May 2026.

Validation: All displayed v11.4 headline outputs reconcile to workbook Summary / UK_SAM / UK_SOM. Workbook governance sheet V11_Reconciliation confirms parity with the prior-model baseline (Status: OK across all material metrics).