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Confidential · LEADBeyond Market Intelligence
Total Opportunity Market = the whole housing stock, split by ventilation type. This is the installed base the model starts from.
Serviceable Available Market = annual balanced-ventilation installs from new build plus first-time conversion. This is the balanced-vent market flow.
Serviceable Obtainable Market = the HRV/ERV subset of SAM, split into MVHR and SRHR. This is the product market Zehnder can actually play in.
2022 is the opening anchor year. 2023–2025 are bridge / calibration years. 2026–2030 are scenario-driven forecasts. First-install and aftermarket are shown separately throughout.
The engine is a cascading pipeline. Source data and structural assumptions set the anchors; Driver Scenarios controls annual Low / Base / High paths; TOM maps the stock; the Conversion Engine and Bridge transform that stock into annual flows for SAM and SOM. Click any step below to see what it does.
Every material assumption in the workbook should trace back to a source row here. Each row stores the metric, source owner, publication, confidence rating, and a note on where it is used in the model.
Use this sheet when you want to challenge a number, update evidence, or explain to a client why a specific assumption exists. It is the provenance layer, not the scenario-control layer.
Structural/static layer only: sourced housing-stock anchors, explicit forecast growth rules, SFH/MFH allocation constants, and the opening stock distribution (2022 anchor → 2023–2025 calibration bridge). Annual scenario paths do not live here. Yellow cells are editable.
In plain language: this sheet tells the engine what the market looks like before scenario choices are applied. It should hold durable structural rules, not yearly Low/Base/High paths.
Live annual scenario-control layer: four independent levers (Construction, Retrofit, Technology Mix, Pricing), each with Low / Base / High paths by year. Mix and match freely.
This is the main control panel. If a client asks “what if retrofit accelerates but construction stays weak?”, the answer is driven here rather than in Assumptions.
Maps the entire UK housing stock (~30.4M dwellings) across 7 ventilation categories. 2022 is the survey-based opening anchor, 2023–2025 are calibration bridge years, and 2026–2030 roll forward in-sheet from stock additions and conversion flows.
This is the installed-base view. It answers: “How many homes currently sit in natural, local exhaust, MEV, PIV, MVHR, SRHR, or other categories?” and shows how that mix evolves over time.
Pathway-based calculator: 6 conversion pathways + 2 replacement pathways. Each applies trigger rate, technical feasibility, and HRV/ERV split.
This is where stock turns into annual flow. It combines source-stock volume with trigger rates, feasibility, and product split rules to estimate how many units are installed in each year.
Aggregates all engine outputs into first-install vs replacement categories.
Think of the bridge as the clean packaging layer between detailed pathway math and reporting sheets. It makes SAM/SOM easier to read without losing the underlying pathway logic.
Serviceable Available Market: annual flow of balanced ventilation installs from new build + conversion. First-install only.
SAM answers the question: “How big is the balanced-vent market Zehnder could in principle serve before narrowing to HRV/ERV products?” It is still broader than Zehnder’s actual product focus.
Serviceable Obtainable Market: the HRV/ERV subset, split MVHR vs SRHR, first-install + aftermarket.
SOM is the closest representation of Zehnder’s actual product market. It narrows balanced ventilation down to HRV/ERV and then splits the market into central MVHR and decentral SRHR opportunities.
Consolidates key metrics across all layers for executive reporting.
Use this for leadership conversations: top-line units, value pools, first-install versus aftermarket, and simple benchmark-facing reads without opening the deeper sheets.
Structured for BI tool ingestion. Columns: Segment | Channel | Product | Year | Units | Value | Share%.
This is the export layer. It lets you move from workbook logic into Power BI, Tableau, or custom charts without rebuilding formulas outside Excel.
| ID | Category | Metric | Value | Source | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UK_HS_001 | Housing Stock | UK total housing stock | 30,413 '000 | ONS Dwelling Stock by Tenure | H |
| UK_NB_001 | New Build | UK new dwelling completions FY 2024-25 | 182.15 '000 | Welsh Gov cross-UK table | M |
| UK_VS_001 | Ventilation | MVHR prevalence in GB housing stock | 3% | Univ. of Strathclyde survey (n=1,861) | M |
| UK_VS_013 | Ventilation | Self-reported mould/damp issues | 22% | Univ. of Strathclyde survey | M |
| UK_HP_001 | Heat Pumps | UK retrofit heat pump installs 2022 | 26,292 | DESNZ Heat Pump Statistics | H |
| Parameter | Unit | 2022 | 2025 | 2026 | 2028 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UK total housing stock | '000 dw. | 30,413 | 30,780 | 30,903 | 31,151 | 31,401 |
| UK housing stock annual growth (forecast years) | % pa | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| NB SFH / MFH share | % of NB | 75% / 25% | 75% / 25% | 75% / 25% | 75% / 25% | 75% / 25% |
| Stock SFH / MFH share | % of stock | 78.7% / 21.3% | 78.7% / 21.3% | 78.7% / 21.3% | 78.7% / 21.3% | 78.7% / 21.3% |
| Reno non-HRV value SFH / MFH weight | ratio | 60% / 40% | 60% / 40% | 60% / 40% | 60% / 40% | 60% / 40% |
| IE housing stock annual growth (forecast years) | % pa | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| Opening UK stock distribution (7 categories)i | 2022 anchor | 2023 bridge | 2024 bridge | 2025 target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Natural only | 29.0% | 28.5% | 28.0% | 27.5% |
| 2. Local exhaust / dMEV | 40.0% | 39.5% | 39.0% | 38.5% |
| 3. Central exhaust / MEV | 21.0% | 21.3% | 21.5% | 21.8% |
| 4. Supply-only / PIV | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% |
| 5. Balanced MVHR (central) | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% |
| 6. Balanced SRHR (decentral) | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| 7. Hybrid / Other / Unknown | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% |
What it controls: new-build completions in UK and Ireland, which then cascade into NB balanced installs.
Why scenarios are defined this way: construction is the most macro-sensitive driver, so Low / Base / High reflect different housing-cycle recoveries rather than technology choices.
2030 anchor points: UK 155k / 206k / 280k; IE 31k / 42k / 52k.
What it controls: deep retrofit, moderate renovation, trigger rates, and replacement intensity.
Why scenarios are defined this way: retrofit is policy- and incentive-sensitive, so the scenarios represent different renovation momentum worlds rather than simple straight-line growth.
Deep retrofit by 2030: SFH 1.0% / 2.25% / 4.0%; MFH 0.7% / 1.7% / 3.2%.
What it controls: balanced-vent penetration, HRV/ERV share, and MVHR vs SRHR split by segment.
Why scenarios are defined this way: technology adoption can accelerate independently of the housing cycle, especially when regulation, installer familiarity, and product acceptance improve faster than expected.
2030 balanced penetration examples: SFH 42% / 62% / 78%; MFH 60% / 80% / 90%.
What it controls: ASP paths across SAM and SOM, split by NB vs Reno and MVHR vs SRHR.
Why scenarios are defined this way: pricing often moves differently from volume — inflation, premiumization, and mix shift can raise value even in a softer unit market.
Example base 2030 ASPs: SAM NB SFH ~£1,172; SAM NB MFH ~£928; SAM Reno SFH ~£1,301.
| Ventilation Type | Segment | 2022 | 2024 | 2026 | 2028 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Natural (window/trickle) | Basic | 8,820 | 8,591 | 8,431 | 8,340 | 8,217 |
| 2. Local exhaust / dMEV | Basic | 12,165 | 11,966 | 11,891 | 11,944 | 11,955 |
| 3. Central exhaust / MEV | Basic | 6,387 | 6,607 | 6,712 | 6,695 | 6,646 |
| 4. Supply-only / PIV | Transitional | 608 | 675 | 709 | 708 | 703 |
| 5. Balanced MVHR (central) | Advanced | 821 | 1,053 | 1,272 | 1,529 | 1,864 |
| 6. Balanced SRHR (decentral) | Advanced | 91 | 153 | 218 | 302 | 417 |
| 7. Hybrid / Other / Unknown | Mixed | 1,521 | 1,636 | 1,671 | 1,633 | 1,599 |
Deep retrofit | Rate 0.3%→0.9%
Deep retrofit | Rate varies
Moderate reno | Rate 0.5%→1.3%
Moderate reno | Rate 0.8%→2.2%
Low-effort | Rate 1.5%→3.0%
Fast/shallow retrofit
Lifecycle | 2.5% /yr
Lifecycle | 2.5% /yr
| Category | 2022 | 2025 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|
| First-time SFH balanced | 31.3k | 51.9k | 131.2k |
| First-time MFH balanced | 8.5k | 14.1k | 35.5k |
| First-time total | 39.8k | 66.0k | 166.8k |
| MVHR replacement | 20.5k | 29.2k | 42.1k |
| SRHR replacement | 2.3k | 4.6k | 8.9k |
| Replacement total | 22.8k | 33.9k | 51.0k |
| Segment | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NB SFH | 48.9 | 56.3 | 63.5 | 57.4 | 64.4 | 71.8 | 79.5 | 87.5 | 95.9 |
| NB MFH | 26.2 | 29.3 | 31.2 | 27.3 | 29.9 | 32.6 | 35.3 | 38.2 | 41.2 |
| NB Total | 75.1 | 85.6 | 94.7 | 84.7 | 94.3 | 104.4 | 114.8 | 125.8 | 137.1 |
| First-time Conv SFH | 31.3 | 35.4 | 45.5 | 51.9 | 65.4 | 80.1 | 96.0 | 113.0 | 131.2 |
| First-time Conv MFH | 8.5 | 9.6 | 12.3 | 14.1 | 17.7 | 21.7 | 26.0 | 30.6 | 35.5 |
| First-Install Conv Total | 39.8 | 44.9 | 57.9 | 66.0 | 83.1 | 101.8 | 122.0 | 143.6 | 166.8 |
| SAM FIRST-INSTALL (units '000) | 114.9 | 130.5 | 152.6 | 150.7 | 177.5 | 206.2 | 236.8 | 269.4 | 303.9 |
| SAM First-Install Value (£M) | £116.8 | £136.5 | £162.9 | £165.7 | £200.6 | £239.5 | £282.3 | £329.5 | £381.1 |
| Section | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. New Build SFH | |||||||||
| NB SFH: HRV/ERV total | 25.4 | 31.5 | 34.9 | 33.9 | 40.0 | 46.7 | 54.1 | 62.1 | 71.0 |
| MVHR (central) | 20.8 | 25.8 | 28.3 | 27.1 | 31.6 | 36.4 | 41.6 | 47.2 | 53.2 |
| SRHR (decentral) | 4.6 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 10.3 | 12.4 | 14.9 | 17.7 |
| B. New Build MFH | |||||||||
| NB MFH: HRV/ERV total | 12.6 | 15.2 | 15.9 | 15.0 | 17.3 | 19.9 | 22.6 | 25.6 | 28.9 |
| MVHR | 8.8 | 10.7 | 11.0 | 10.2 | 11.6 | 13.1 | 14.7 | 16.4 | 18.2 |
| SRHR | 3.8 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 10.7 |
| C. Conversion SFH | |||||||||
| Reno SFH: HRV/ERV total | 12.5 | 15.6 | 20.0 | 24.9 | 33.4 | 43.3 | 54.7 | 67.8 | 82.7 |
| MVHR | 10.7 | 13.1 | 16.6 | 20.4 | 27.0 | 34.6 | 43.2 | 52.9 | 63.7 |
| SRHR | 1.9 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 11.5 | 14.9 | 19.0 |
| D. Conversion MFH | |||||||||
| Reno MFH: HRV/ERV total | 3.0 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 8.0 | 10.4 | 13.3 | 16.5 | 20.2 |
| MVHR | 1.9 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 11.7 |
| SRHR | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 8.5 |
| E. First-Install Totals | |||||||||
| SOM FIRST-INSTALL (units '000) | 53.5 | 65.9 | 75.6 | 79.7 | 98.6 | 120.2 | 144.6 | 172.1 | 202.8 |
| MVHR first-install | 42.2 | 51.9 | 58.9 | 61.5 | 75.2 | 90.5 | 107.5 | 126.3 | 146.8 |
| SRHR first-install | 11.3 | 14.0 | 16.7 | 18.3 | 23.5 | 29.7 | 37.1 | 45.8 | 55.9 |
| SOM First-Install Value (£M) | £59.3 | £74.5 | £87.0 | £93.8 | £118.6 | £147.7 | £181.3 | £220.0 | £264.3 |
| F. Aftermarket | |||||||||
| Replacement MVHR | 20.5 | 23.3 | 26.3 | 29.2 | 29.2 | 31.8 | 34.8 | 38.2 | 42.1 |
| Replacement SRHR | 2.3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 8.9 |
| Replacement total | 22.8 | 26.4 | 30.2 | 33.9 | 33.9 | 37.2 | 41.2 | 45.8 | 51.0 |
| G. Grand Total | |||||||||
| SOM TOTAL incl. Replacement (units) | 76.3 | 92.3 | 105.7 | 113.6 | 132.5 | 157.5 | 185.8 | 217.9 | 253.8 |
| MVHR total | 62.8 | 75.3 | 85.2 | 90.7 | 104.4 | 122.3 | 142.3 | 164.5 | 189.0 |
| SRHR total | 13.5 | 17.0 | 20.5 | 22.9 | 28.1 | 35.2 | 43.6 | 53.4 | 64.8 |
| SOM Grand Total Value (£M) | £89.2 | £109.5 | £127.5 | £139.9 | £165.9 | £200.6 | £240.9 | £287.4 | £340.8 |
| Metric | 2022 | 2025 | 2026 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Housing stock ('000) | 2,112 | 2,181 | 2,209 | 2,326 |
| NB balanced penetration | 35% | 55% | 60% | 80% |
| NB balanced installs | 11.6 | 20.4 | 22.8 | 33.6 |
| Deep retrofit balanced | 1.2 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 7.7 |
| SAM total | 12.8 | 23.4 | 26.6 | 41.3 |
| SOM total (HRV/ERV) | 6.4 | 15.2 | 17.8 | 31.0 |
| MVHR | 4.8 | 12.2 | 14.5 | 26.3 |
| SRHR | 1.6 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 4.6 |
Output_Flat: Structured for BI tool ingestion. Columns: Segment | Channel | Product | Year | Units | Value | Share%. Ready for Power BI, Tableau, or custom dashboards.
Value pool is segmented consistently with the workbook: MVHR vs SRHR across SFH/MFH and NB/Conversion, with aftermarket shown separately. Tile sizes now scale with the selected value pool so large segments visibly take more space.
The funnel is a base-scenario snapshot. Use the year toggle to switch between 2025 and 2030 and the product toggle to view total HRV/ERV, MVHR only, or SRHR only.
Operational charts below are unit-led because those are the cleanest comparable series across the workbook. Value views are already shown in the Value Pool and the dedicated market value chart.